Final tracked odds
As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 97%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Everything Else · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026
97%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | 97% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 97% |
| 2026-09-21 | 96% |
| 2026-09-20 | 96% |
| 2026-09-19 | 96% |
| 2026-09-18 | 96% |
| 2026-09-17 | 96% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 97%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 96%, ending at 97% on September 22, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff” for 6 days, since September 17, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 97%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.