Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 92%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
92%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | 92% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 92% |
| 2026-10-03 | 89% |
| 2026-09-30 | 86% |
| 2026-09-29 | 86% |
| 2026-09-28 | 86% |
| 2026-09-26 | 85% |
| 2026-09-25 | 87% |
| 2026-09-24 | 80% |
| 2026-09-23 | 90% |
| 2026-09-22 | 87% |
| 2026-09-21 | 87% |
| 2026-09-19 | 91% |
| 2026-09-18 | 89% |
| 2026-09-17 | 87% |
| 2026-09-16 | 87% |
| 2026-09-15 | 88% |
| 2026-09-14 | 86% |
| 2026-09-13 | 84% |
| 2026-09-12 | 84% |
| 2026-09-11 | 85% |
| 2026-09-10 | 83% |
| 2026-09-09 | 87% |
| 2026-09-08 | 86% |
| 2026-09-07 | 85% |
| 2026-09-06 | 86% |
| 2026-09-05 | 87% |
| 2026-09-04 | 86% |
| 2026-09-03 | 90% |
| 2026-09-02 | 86% |
| 2026-09-01 | 84% |
| 2026-08-20 | 78% |
| 2026-08-19 | 78% |
| 2026-08-18 | 79% |
| 2026-08-17 | 78% |
| 2026-08-16 | 74% |
| 2026-08-15 | 76% |
| 2026-08-14 | 81% |
| 2026-08-13 | 81% |
| 2026-08-12 | 79% |
| 2026-08-11 | 89% |
| 2026-08-10 | 89% |
| 2026-08-09 | 76% |
| 2026-08-08 | 77% |
| 2026-08-07 | 66% |
| 2026-08-06 | 80% |
| 2026-08-04 | 79% |
| 2026-08-03 | 80% |
| 2026-08-02 | 82% |
| 2026-07-31 | 90% |
| 2026-07-30 | 89% |
| 2026-07-29 | 88% |
| 2026-07-28 | 88% |
| 2026-07-27 | 89% |
| 2026-07-26 | 89% |
| 2026-07-25 | 90% |
| 2026-07-24 | 89% |
| 2026-07-23 | 90% |
| 2026-07-22 | 92% |
| 2026-07-21 | 92% |
| 2026-07-20 | 92% |
| 2026-07-16 | 92% |
| 2026-07-15 | 92% |
| 2026-07-14 | 92% |
| 2026-07-13 | 92% |
| 2026-07-12 | 92% |
| 2026-07-11 | 92% |
| 2026-07-10 | 92% |
| 2026-07-09 | 91% |
| 2026-07-08 | 92% |
| 2026-07-07 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 92%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 70 tracked days the odds held near 92%, ending at 92% on October 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 70 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 92%. The final reading of 92% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027” for 70 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 92%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 92%, ranging between 66% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.