Today’s odds
As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 80%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
80%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 80% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 80% |
| 2026-08-03 | 80% |
| 2026-08-02 | 82% |
| 2026-07-31 | 90% |
| 2026-07-30 | 89% |
| 2026-07-29 | 88% |
| 2026-07-28 | 88% |
| 2026-07-27 | 89% |
| 2026-07-26 | 89% |
| 2026-07-25 | 90% |
| 2026-07-24 | 89% |
| 2026-07-23 | 90% |
| 2026-07-22 | 92% |
| 2026-07-21 | 92% |
| 2026-07-20 | 92% |
| 2026-07-16 | 92% |
| 2026-07-15 | 92% |
| 2026-07-14 | 92% |
| 2026-07-13 | 92% |
| 2026-07-12 | 92% |
| 2026-07-11 | 92% |
| 2026-07-10 | 92% |
| 2026-07-09 | 91% |
| 2026-07-08 | 92% |
| 2026-07-07 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 80%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 25 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 92% on July 7, 2026 to 80% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 25 tracked days the odds ranged between 80% and 92%. The current reading of 80% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027” for 25 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 80%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 92% to 80%, ranging between 80% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.