Final tracked odds
As of September 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
Politics · tracked since September 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 26, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Michigan |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 * | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election” for 2 days, since September 25, 2026. As of September 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.