Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Nickie Kane receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 House election?
Politics · tracked since September 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 7% | 8% | 5% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 7% |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 5% |
| 2026-09-21 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 5% |
| 2026-09-13 | 4% |
| 2026-09-12 * | 4% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Nickie Kane receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 House election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Nickie Kane receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-10 House election” for 4 days, since September 13, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 4%, ranging between 4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.