Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 95%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Politics · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
95%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 95% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 95% |
| 2026-10-03 | 95% |
| 2026-10-02 | 95% |
| 2026-10-01 | 95% |
| 2026-08-11 | 76% |
| 2026-08-10 | 76% |
| 2026-08-09 | 74% |
| 2026-08-08 | 74% |
| 2026-08-07 | 73% |
| 2026-08-06 | 73% |
| 2026-08-05 | 74% |
| 2026-08-04 | 74% |
| 2026-08-03 | 75% |
| 2026-08-02 | 72% |
| 2026-08-01 | 72% |
| 2026-07-27 | 70% |
| 2026-07-21 | 86% |
| 2026-07-20 | 86% |
| 2026-07-12 | 88% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 95%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on July 12, 2026 to 95% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 70% and 95%. The final reading of 95% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election” for 19 days, since July 12, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 95%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 88% to 95%, ranging between 70% and 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.