Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 73%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Politics · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
73%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | 73% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 73% |
| 2026-08-05 | 74% |
| 2026-08-04 | 74% |
| 2026-08-03 | 75% |
| 2026-08-02 | 72% |
| 2026-08-01 | 72% |
| 2026-07-27 | 70% |
| 2026-07-21 | 86% |
| 2026-07-20 | 86% |
| 2026-07-12 | 88% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 73%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on July 12, 2026 to 73% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 70% and 88%. The current reading of 73% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election” for 10 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 73%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 88% to 73%, ranging between 70% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.