Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 12% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-26 | 12% |
| 2026-07-25 | 12% |
| 2026-07-24 | 16% |
| 2026-07-23 | 18% |
| 2026-07-22 | 12% |
| 2026-07-21 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
| 2026-07-19 | 12% |
| 2026-07-18 | 11% |
| 2026-07-17 | 11% |
| 2026-07-16 | 10% |
| 2026-07-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-14 | 10% |
| 2026-07-13 | 9% |
| 2026-07-12 | 10% |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 10% |
| 2026-07-08 | 11% |
| 2026-07-07 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 7, 2026 to 12% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 18%. The current reading of 12% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has risen from 10% to 12%, ranging between 8% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.