Today’s odds
As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 26%.
▼ 42 since the previous update. ▼ 42 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
26%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | 26% | ▼ 42 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 26% |
| 2026-07-19 | 68% |
| 2026-07-18 | 68% |
| 2026-07-17 | 68% |
| 2026-07-16 | 68% |
| 2026-07-15 | 69% |
| 2026-07-14 | 71% |
| 2026-07-13 | 71% |
| 2026-07-11 | 62% |
| 2026-07-10 | 62% |
| 2026-07-09 | 60% |
| 2026-07-08 | 69% |
| 2026-07-07 | 68% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of September 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on July 7, 2026 to 26% on September 5, 2026 — a change of 42 points.
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 26% and 71%. The current reading of 26% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 68% to 26%, ranging between 26% and 71% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.