Final tracked odds
As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 24, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Before Aug 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 2% |
| 2026-07-20 | 2% |
| 2026-07-19 | 2% |
| 2026-07-18 | 2% |
| 2026-07-17 | 2% |
| 2026-07-16 | 2% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
| 2026-07-11 | 6% |
| 2026-07-10 | 6% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 8% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 8% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 11% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 20% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 19% |
| 2026-07-01 * | 44% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on July 24, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 6%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026” for 16 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.