Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-19 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 24 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 24 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.