Final tracked odds
As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 26, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 3% |
| 2026-07-18 | 3% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3% |
| 2026-07-16 | 3% |
| 2026-07-15 | 2% |
| 2026-07-14 | 2% |
| 2026-07-13 | 2% |
| 2026-07-12 | 2% |
| 2026-07-11 | 2% |
| 2026-07-10 | 2% |
| 2026-07-09 | 2% |
| 2026-07-08 | 2% |
| 2026-07-07 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 3% on July 26, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election” for 14 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.