Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 22%.
▼ 8 since the previous update. ▼ 39 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9%?
Politics · tracked since August 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
22%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham, ≥9% | 30% | 22% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Darline Graham, ≥9% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 22% |
| 2026-08-21 | 30% |
| 2026-08-20 | 38% |
| 2026-08-19 | 59% |
| 2026-08-18 | 61% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 22%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 61% on August 18, 2026 to 22% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 39 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 61%. The final reading of 22% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9%” for 5 days, since August 18, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 22%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 61% to 22%, ranging between 22% and 61% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.