Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 56%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 28 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3%?
Politics · tracked since August 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
56%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham, ≥3% | 52% | 56% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Darline Graham, ≥3% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 56% |
| 2026-08-21 | 52% |
| 2026-08-20 | 79% |
| 2026-08-19 | 79% |
| 2026-08-18 * | 84% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 56%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3% — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 79% on August 19, 2026 to 56% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 23 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3% — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 79%. The final reading of 56% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3%” for 4 days, since August 19, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 56%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 79% to 56%, ranging between 52% and 79% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.