Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5.5 percentage points?
Politics · tracked since November 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
38%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El-Sayed, 5.5+ pts | 42% | 38% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | El-Sayed, 5.5+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 38% |
| 2026-11-02 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5.5 percentage points — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5.5 percentage points — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on November 2, 2026 to 38% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5.5 percentage points” for 2 days, since November 2, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 42% to 38%, ranging between 38% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.