Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 7, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of September 7, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 44 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on September 7, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 6	Today	Move
Ed Markey, ≥30%	2%	2%	—

Full history table

Date	Ed Markey, ≥30%
2026-09-07	2%
2026-09-06	2%
2026-09-02	8%
2026-09-01	45%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 7, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 45% on September 1, 2026 to 2% on September 7, 2026 — a change of 43 points.
Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 45%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%” for 4 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 45% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 45% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 7, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.