Today’s odds
As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 36 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%?
Politics · tracked since September 1, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey, ≥30% | 8% | 8% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Ed Markey, ≥30% |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 45% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — what are the odds?
- As of September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 45% on September 1, 2026 to 8% on September 3, 2026 — a change of 37 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30% — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 45%. The current reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%” for 3 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 45% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 45% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.