Final tracked odds
As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be at least 24%?
Politics · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 20, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Norman, ≥24% | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Ralph Norman, ≥24% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 * | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be at least 24% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be at least 24%” for 3 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.