Final tracked odds
As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9%?
Politics · tracked since August 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 20, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Norman, 6-9% | 6% | 4% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Ralph Norman, 6-9% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 4% |
| 2026-08-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 4% |
| 2026-08-17 | 2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 * | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 * | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9% — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on August 15, 2026 to 4% on August 20, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9%” for 6 days, since August 15, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 4%, ranging between 2% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.