Politics · tracked since October 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 26, 2026
Final tracked odds
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 57% on October 26, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott, 2+ pts | 53% | 57% | ▲ 4 |
| Date | Abbott, 2+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 57% |
| 2026-10-25 | 53% |
| 2026-10-24 | 58% |
| 2026-10-23 | 56% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points” for 4 days, since October 23, 2026. As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 57%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 56% to 57%, ranging between 53% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.