Final tracked odds
As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 13 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 9% and 12%?
Politics · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 20, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Norman, 9-12% | 3% | 2% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Ralph Norman, 9-12% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 3% |
| 2026-08-18 | 2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 3% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 * | 15% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 9% and 12% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 9% and 12% — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 2% on August 20, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 9% and 12%” for 5 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.