Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 21%.
▼ 11 since the previous update. ▼ 26 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3%?
Politics · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
21%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% | 32% | 21% | ▼ 11 |
Full history table
| Date | Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 21% |
| 2026-10-08 | 32% |
| 2026-10-07 | 30% |
| 2026-10-06 | 47% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3% — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 21%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3% — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 47% on October 6, 2026 to 21% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3% — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 21% and 47%. The current reading of 21% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3%” for 4 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 21%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 47% to 21%, ranging between 21% and 47% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.