Politics · tracked since October 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 26, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 3% on October 26, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott, 8-10% | 4% | 3% | ▼ 1 |
| Date | Greg Abbott, 8-10% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 3% |
| 2026-10-25 | 4% |
| 2026-10-24 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 8% and 10%” for 3 days, since October 24, 2026. As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.