Final tracked odds
As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 12% and 15%?
Politics · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Norman, 12-15% | 3% | 5% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Ralph Norman, 12-15% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 5% |
| 2026-08-17 | 3% |
| 2026-08-16 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 * | 1.0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 12% and 15% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 12% and 15% — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on August 14, 2026 to 5% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 12% and 15%” for 4 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 5%, ranging between 2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.