Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.
▼ 19 since the previous update. ▼ 36 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%?
Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
38%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham, ≥6% | 56% | 38% | ▼ 19 |
Full history table
| Date | Darline Graham, ≥6% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 38% |
| 2026-08-21 | 56% |
| 2026-08-20 | 60% |
| 2026-08-19 * | 74% |
| 2026-08-18 * | 74% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on August 20, 2026 to 38% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 60%. The final reading of 38% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%” for 3 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 60% to 38%, ranging between 38% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.