Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will SDS finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election?
Politics · tracked since September 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDS | 3% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | SDS |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 2% |
| 2026-09-22 | 3% |
| 2026-09-21 | 2% |
| 2026-09-17 | 2% |
| 2026-09-16 | 2% |
| 2026-09-15 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will SDS finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will SDS finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 2% on September 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will SDS finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election” for 6 days, since September 15, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.