Today’s odds
As of August 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 9, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 0.1% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-19 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of August 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 0.6%, ending at 0.1% on August 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 6 days, since July 9, 2026. As of August 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.