Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 42 tracked days the odds held near 0.5%, ending at 0.1% on August 27, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 42 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.