Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 96% | 96% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Reform UK |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 96% |
| 2026-07-28 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-26 | 96% |
| 2026-07-25 | 96% |
| 2026-07-24 | 96% |
| 2026-07-23 | 96% |
| 2026-07-22 | 96% |
| 2026-07-21 | 96% |
| 2026-07-20 | 96% |
| 2026-07-19 | 96% |
| 2026-07-18 | 96% |
| 2026-07-17 | 96% |
| 2026-07-16 | 96% |
| 2026-07-15 | 96% |
| 2026-07-14 | 92% |
| 2026-07-13 | 94% |
| 2026-07-12 | 90% |
| 2026-07-11 | 92% |
| 2026-07-10 | 92% |
| 2026-07-09 | 92% |
| 2026-07-08 | 92% |
| 2026-07-07 | 96% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 23 tracked days the odds held near 96%, ending at 96% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 90% and 96%. The current reading of 96% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The chance for a yes has held near 96%, ranging between 90% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.