Final tracked odds
As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?
Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 59% | 6% | 3% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 59% |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-23 | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 6% |
| 2026-08-21 | 12% |
| 2026-08-20 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on August 20, 2026 to 3% on August 25, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 12%. The final reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff” for 6 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.