Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 48%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
48%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48% | 48% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 48% |
| 2026-07-28 | 48% |
| 2026-07-27 | 51% |
| 2026-07-26 | 57% |
| 2026-07-25 | 55% |
| 2026-07-24 | 62% |
| 2026-07-23 | 66% |
| 2026-07-22 | 64% |
| 2026-07-21 | 62% |
| 2026-07-20 | 60% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 48%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on July 20, 2026 to 48% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 66%. The current reading of 48% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31” for 10 days, since July 20, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 48%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 60% to 48%, ranging between 48% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.