Final tracked odds
As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 55%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 11 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026
55%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | 55% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 55% |
| 2026-10-10 | 54% |
| 2026-10-09 | 54% |
| 2026-10-08 | 62% |
| 2026-10-07 | 66% |
| 2026-10-06 | 66% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 55%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on October 6, 2026 to 55% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 54% and 66%. The final reading of 55% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027” for 6 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 55%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 66% to 55%, ranging between 54% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.