Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — how much have the odds move?

Barely. Across 8 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 8% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 30%. The current reading of 8% sits inside that range.

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 9, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Nov 2	Today	Move
Yes	8%	8%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-04	8%
2026-11-02	8%
2026-11-01	8%
2026-10-31	10%
2026-10-30	9%
2026-10-29	30%
2026-10-12	8%
2026-10-09	8%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — what are the odds?: As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — how much have the odds move?: Barely. Across 8 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 8% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 30%. The current reading of 8% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027” for 8 days, since October 9, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.