The Morning Line

Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 18, 2026

0.2%

Final tracked odds

As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.2%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on July 18, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 28Jul 5Jul 12Jul 18Rory McIlroy — Jun 22: 12%Rory McIlroy — Jun 23: 12%Rory McIlroy — Jun 24: 11%Rory McIlroy — Jun 25: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jun 26: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jun 27: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jun 28: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jun 29: 11%Rory McIlroy — Jun 30: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 1: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 2: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 3: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 4: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 5: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 6: 11%Rory McIlroy — Jul 7: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jul 8: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jul 9: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 10: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jul 11: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 12: 10%Rory McIlroy — Jul 13: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jul 14: 9%Rory McIlroy — Jul 15: 8%Rory McIlroy — Jul 16: 6%Rory McIlroy — Jul 17: 2%Rory McIlroy — Jul 18: 0.2%0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 17TodayMove
Rory McIlroy2%0.2%▼ 2
Full history table
DateRory McIlroy
2026-07-180.2%
2026-07-172%
2026-07-166%
2026-07-158%
2026-07-149%
2026-07-139%
2026-07-1210%
2026-07-1110%
2026-07-109%
2026-07-0910%
2026-07-089%
2026-07-079%
2026-07-06 *11%
2026-07-05 *10%
2026-07-04 *10%
2026-07-03 *10%
2026-07-02 *10%
2026-07-01 *10%
2026-06-30 *10%
2026-06-29 *11%
2026-06-28 *10%
2026-06-27 *10%
2026-06-26 *10%
2026-06-25 *9%
2026-06-24 *11%
2026-06-23 *12%
2026-06-22 *12%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on July 7, 2026 to 0.2% on July 18, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.2% and 10%. The final reading of 0.2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.