The Morning Line

Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

0.8%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.8%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 6% on July 19, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 12Jul 19Ryan Gerard — Jun 22: 0%Ryan Gerard — Jun 23: 1.0%Ryan Gerard — Jun 24: 1.0%Ryan Gerard — Jun 25: 1.0%Ryan Gerard — Jun 26: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jun 27: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jun 28: 1.0%Ryan Gerard — Jun 29: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jun 30: 0.9%Ryan Gerard — Jul 1: 0.6%Ryan Gerard — Jul 2: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 3: 0.5%Ryan Gerard — Jul 4: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 5: 0.5%Ryan Gerard — Jul 6: 0.5%Ryan Gerard — Jul 7: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 8: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 9: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 10: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 11: 0.4%Ryan Gerard — Jul 12: 0.2%Ryan Gerard — Jul 13: 0.5%Ryan Gerard — Jul 14: 0.7%Ryan Gerard — Jul 15: 0.7%Ryan Gerard — Jul 16: 2%Ryan Gerard — Jul 17: 3%Ryan Gerard — Jul 18: 2%Ryan Gerard — Jul 19: 0.8%0.8%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Ryan Gerard2%0.8%▼ 1
Full history table
DateRyan Gerard
2026-07-190.8%
2026-07-182%
2026-07-173%
2026-07-162%
2026-07-150.7%
2026-07-140.7%
2026-07-130.5%
2026-07-120.2%
2026-07-110.4%
2026-07-100.4%
2026-07-090.4%
2026-07-080.4%
2026-07-070.4%
2026-07-06 *0.5%
2026-07-05 *0.5%
2026-07-04 *0.4%
2026-07-03 *0.5%
2026-07-02 *0.4%
2026-07-01 *0.6%
2026-06-30 *0.9%
2026-06-29 *0.4%
2026-06-28 *1.0%
2026-06-27 *0.4%
2026-06-26 *0.4%
2026-06-25 *1.0%
2026-06-24 *1.0%
2026-06-23 *1.0%
2026-06-22 *0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship — how much did the odds move?
Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 0.4%, ending at 0.8% on July 19, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.4%, ranging between 0.2% and 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.