The Morning Line

Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

17%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 17%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 40% on July 19, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 12Jul 19Sam Burns — Jun 22: 4%Sam Burns — Jun 23: 2%Sam Burns — Jun 24: 3%Sam Burns — Jun 25: 3%Sam Burns — Jun 26: 2%Sam Burns — Jun 27: 2%Sam Burns — Jun 28: 2%Sam Burns — Jun 29: 2%Sam Burns — Jun 30: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 1: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 2: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 3: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 4: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 5: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 6: 3%Sam Burns — Jul 7: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 8: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 9: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 10: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 11: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 12: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 13: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 14: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 15: 2%Sam Burns — Jul 16: 1.4%Sam Burns — Jul 17: 6%Sam Burns — Jul 18: 16%Sam Burns — Jul 19: 17%17%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Sam Burns16%17%▲ 1
Full history table
DateSam Burns
2026-07-1917%
2026-07-1816%
2026-07-176%
2026-07-161.4%
2026-07-152%
2026-07-142%
2026-07-132%
2026-07-122%
2026-07-112%
2026-07-102%
2026-07-092%
2026-07-082%
2026-07-072%
2026-07-06 *3%
2026-07-05 *3%
2026-07-04 *3%
2026-07-03 *3%
2026-07-02 *3%
2026-07-01 *3%
2026-06-30 *3%
2026-06-29 *2%
2026-06-28 *2%
2026-06-27 *2%
2026-06-26 *2%
2026-06-25 *3%
2026-06-24 *3%
2026-06-23 *2%
2026-06-22 *4%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on July 7, 2026 to 17% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 1.4% and 17%. The final reading of 17% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 17%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 17%, ranging between 1.4% and 17% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.