Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 21%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on July 7, 2026 to 21% on July 14, 2026 — a change of 10 points.

Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 21%. The final reading of 21% sits at the top of that range.

Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 14, 2026

21%

Final tracked odds

As of July 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 21%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 21% on July 14, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 13	Today	Move
Spain vs England	21%	21%	—

Full history table

Date	Spain vs England
2026-07-14	21%
2026-07-13	21%
2026-07-12	21%
2026-07-11	15%
2026-07-10	11%
2026-07-09	12%
2026-07-08	12%
2026-07-07	11%
2026-07-06 *	7%
2026-07-05 *	3%
2026-07-04 *	3%
2026-07-03 *	2%
2026-07-02 *	0%
2026-07-01 *	2%
2026-06-30 *	0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 21%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on July 7, 2026 to 21% on July 14, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 21%. The final reading of 21% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Spain play England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final” for 8 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 21%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 11% to 21%, ranging between 11% and 21% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.