Today’s odds
As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | 96% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 96% |
| 2026-08-03 | 96% |
| 2026-08-02 | 96% |
| 2026-08-01 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-21 | 97% |
| 2026-07-20 | 97% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — what are the odds?
- As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 7 tracked days the odds held near 97%, ending at 96% on August 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled” for 7 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The chance for a yes has held near 97% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.