Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 26, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 31%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 7, 2026 to 31% on July 26, 2026 — a change of 7 points.

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 41%. The final reading of 31% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026” for 17 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 31%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 31%, ranging between 22% and 41% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

• Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Everything Else 31% · completed
• Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? Everything Else 38% · completed
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Everything Else 10%
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Everything Else 24%