Today’s odds
As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 12% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 12% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-27 | 12% |
| 2026-07-26 | 12% |
| 2026-07-25 | 12% |
| 2026-07-24 | 9% |
| 2026-07-23 | 11% |
| 2026-07-22 | 11% |
| 2026-07-21 | 11% |
| 2026-07-20 | 10% |
| 2026-07-16 | 11% |
| 2026-07-13 | 11% |
| 2026-07-12 | 12% |
| 2026-07-10 | 12% |
| 2026-07-08 | 12% |
| 2026-07-07 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of July 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on July 7, 2026 to 12% on July 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026” for 17 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 12%, ranging between 9% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.