Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
Everything Else · tracked since September 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
20%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran war and foreign policy | 20% | 20% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Iran war and foreign policy |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 20% |
| 2026-09-29 | 20% |
| 2026-09-28 | 10% |
| 2026-09-27 | 5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 3% |
| 2026-09-25 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 3% on September 25, 2026 to 20% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 20%. The final reading of 20% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll” for 6 days, since September 25, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 3% to 20%, ranging between 3% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.