Today’s odds
As of October 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins be at least 1%?
Everything Else · tracked since October 13, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% | 92% | 96% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 96% |
| 2026-10-13 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins be at least 1% — what are the odds?
- As of October 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins be at least 1% — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 92% on October 13, 2026 to 96% on October 14, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins be at least 1%” for 2 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The chance for a yes has risen from 92% to 96%, ranging between 92% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.