Final tracked odds
As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 5% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 5% |
| 2026-08-18 | 8% |
| 2026-08-17 | 9% |
| 2026-08-16 | 10% |
| 2026-08-15 | 10% |
| 2026-08-08 | 14% |
| 2026-08-06 | 24% |
| 2026-08-05 | 25% |
| 2026-07-19 | 10% |
| 2026-07-18 | 11% |
| 2026-07-17 | 12% |
| 2026-07-16 | 11% |
| 2026-07-14 | 15% |
| 2026-07-13 | 15% |
| 2026-07-11 | 17% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 17% on July 11, 2026 to 5% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 5% and 25%. The final reading of 5% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026” for 15 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 17% to 5%, ranging between 5% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.