Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
Everything Else · tracked since September 30, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 290 | 4% | 2% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 290 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-04 | 4% |
| 2026-10-02 | 4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 4% |
| 2026-09-30 | 4% |
| 2026-09-29 * | 1.0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on September 30, 2026 to 2% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections” for 5 days, since September 30, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.