Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on September 23, 2026 to 31% on September 29, 2026 — a change of 5 points.

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 36%. The final reading of 31% sits inside that range.

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 29, 2026

31%

Final tracked odds

As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 31%.

▲ 10 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 16% on September 29, 2026. Before Oct 1, 2026 won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 28	Today	Move
Before Oct 1, 2026	22%	31%	▲ 10

Full history table

Date	Before Oct 1, 2026
2026-09-29	31%
2026-09-28	22%
2026-09-27	24%
2026-09-25	16%
2026-09-24	28%
2026-09-23	36%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 31%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on September 23, 2026 to 31% on September 29, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 36%. The final reading of 31% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026” for 6 days, since September 23, 2026. As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 31%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 31%, ranging between 16% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.