Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what are the odds?

As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 8, 2026 to 12% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 18%. The current reading of 12% sits inside that range.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

12%

Today’s odds

As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 3	Today	Move
Yes	13%	12%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-04	12%
2026-08-03	13%
2026-08-02	14%
2026-08-01	15%
2026-07-31	14%
2026-07-30	14%
2026-07-29	14%
2026-07-28	12%
2026-07-27	14%
2026-07-23	16%
2026-07-22	17%
2026-07-21	16%
2026-07-20	14%
2026-07-15	18%
2026-07-13	12%
2026-07-12	18%
2026-07-08	18%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what are the odds?: As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 8, 2026 to 12% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 18%. The current reading of 12% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026” for 17 days, since July 8, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.