Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 50 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 8, 2026 to 6% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 50 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 18%. The final reading of 6% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026” for 50 days, since July 8, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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