Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | 8% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 8% |
| 2026-09-22 | 8% |
| 2026-09-21 | 8% |
| 2026-09-20 | 9% |
| 2026-09-19 | 6% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on September 17, 2026 to 8% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027” for 7 days, since September 17, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 5% to 8%, ranging between 5% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.