Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-30 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-27 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-24 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-23 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | 2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-12 | 2% |
| 2026-08-11 | 2% |
| 2026-08-10 | 2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 1.5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 29 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on August 7, 2026 to 0.4% on September 20, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting” for 29 days, since August 7, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 2% to 0.4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.