Final tracked odds
As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
▲ 18 since the previous update. ▲ 53 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 275000?
Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 275k | 80% | 98% | ▲ 18 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 275k |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 98% |
| 2026-08-24 | 80% |
| 2026-08-23 | 82% |
| 2026-08-22 | 79% |
| 2026-08-21 | 70% |
| 2026-08-20 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 275000 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 275000 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on August 20, 2026 to 98% on August 25, 2026 — a change of 52 points.
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 275000 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 46% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 275000” for 6 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 46% to 98%, ranging between 46% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.