Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026?
Politics · tracked since September 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 12% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | 0 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 12% |
| 2026-10-04 | 11% |
| 2026-09-30 | 16% |
| 2026-09-29 | 17% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 17% on September 29, 2026 to 12% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 17%. The final reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026” for 4 days, since September 29, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 17% to 12%, ranging between 11% and 17% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.