Final tracked odds
As of September 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Politics · tracked since September 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 12, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 24% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 24% |
| 2026-09-09 | 26% |
| 2026-09-08 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election” for 3 days, since September 8, 2026. As of September 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.