Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 37% on September 16, 2026 to 2% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 35 points.

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 37%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on September 28, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
Before Oct 1, 2026	2%	2%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Before Oct 1, 2026
2026-09-28	2%
2026-09-22	2%
2026-09-21	2%
2026-09-20	2%
2026-09-19	4%
2026-09-18	2%
2026-09-17	8%
2026-09-16	37%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 37% on September 16, 2026 to 2% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 35 points.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 37%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026” for 8 days, since September 16, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 37% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 37% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.