Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 14, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 10% |
| 2026-08-26 | 10% |
| 2026-08-25 | 10% |
| 2026-08-24 | 10% |
| 2026-08-23 | 12% |
| 2026-08-22 | 10% |
| 2026-08-21 | 9% |
| 2026-08-20 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 10% |
| 2026-08-16 | 14% |
| 2026-08-15 | 14% |
| 2026-08-14 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 14, 2026 to 10% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 14%. The current reading of 10% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31” for 12 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 10%, ranging between 9% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.